Experts Predict 'Above Average' Hurricane Activity In 2005
Researchers Predict 13 Named Storms This Season
POSTED: 9:10 pm EST April 1,
2005
UPDATED: 4:49 am EDT May 10,
2005
FORT COLLINS, Colo. -- Forecasters at Colorado State University said Friday that the Atlantic basin will see "significantly above average" hurricane activity this season.
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In December, the CSU team predicted 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The forecasts are regularly updated.The long-term average for the Atlantic-Caribbean region is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes each year.Forecasters said an El Nino weather event in the Pacific will probably not be significant this year, raising the likelihood of a more active storm season in the Atlantic."All of the information we have collected and analyzed through March indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one," said Gray, who has forecast Atlantic hurricanes for 22 years.The forecast also calls for a considerably higher than average probability of at least one major hurricane-making landfall in the United States: 73 percent, compared with the long-term average probability of 52 percent.For the East Coast, including Florida, the probability of an intense hurricane-making landfall is 53 percent (long-term average, 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast, from Florida west to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 41 percent (30 percent).The storm seasons from 1995 through 2004 comprised the most active 10 consecutive hurricane years on record and this year is expected to follow suit."We think that the United States has entered a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity reflective of the high activity during eight of the last 10 years," said Philip Klotzbach, atmospheric research scientist and forecast team member. "We expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to span the next two or three decades."Gray's team will issue seasonal updates of the hurricane season forecast on May 31, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 3.
In December, the CSU team predicted 11 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes. The forecasts are regularly updated.The long-term average for the Atlantic-Caribbean region is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes each year.Forecasters said an El Nino weather event in the Pacific will probably not be significant this year, raising the likelihood of a more active storm season in the Atlantic."All of the information we have collected and analyzed through March indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one," said Gray, who has forecast Atlantic hurricanes for 22 years.The forecast also calls for a considerably higher than average probability of at least one major hurricane-making landfall in the United States: 73 percent, compared with the long-term average probability of 52 percent.For the East Coast, including Florida, the probability of an intense hurricane-making landfall is 53 percent (long-term average, 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast, from Florida west to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 41 percent (30 percent).The storm seasons from 1995 through 2004 comprised the most active 10 consecutive hurricane years on record and this year is expected to follow suit."We think that the United States has entered a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity reflective of the high activity during eight of the last 10 years," said Philip Klotzbach, atmospheric research scientist and forecast team member. "We expect this active tropical cyclone era to continue this year and to span the next two or three decades."Gray's team will issue seasonal updates of the hurricane season forecast on May 31, Aug. 5, Sept. 2 and Oct. 3.
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